To Stay or Go

It's about time that this year's crop of juniors (and one Sophomore) to decide whether or not they intend on entering the 2010 NFL draft. So... who should stay and who should go? Here is my analysis:

Sam Bradford - Go
Unfortunately, Bradford's shoulder injury cut his Junior season short. He has already signaled his intention to declare himself eligible for the upcoming draft and rightly so. His stock will remain high and he could be the top QB selected in the draft. Bradford cannot afford to put himself at risk of injury with another season in Norman. If he were to be injured again, surely his stock would fall as he would begin to look brittle to NFL scouts. Arm injuries are always an obvious concern for a QB. Chad Pennington's arm problems led to a noticeable decrease in arm strength and dampened a very promising young career. Then again... look at how Drew Brees has done since his shoulder injury.

Jimmy Clausen - Stay
Clausen is projected as a top round draft choice, but I just don't see it. After three highly unsuccessful seasons at Notre Dame, some of the blame HAS to sit with the quarterback and not just the head coach, right? After his recent incident getting punched out at a bar early in the morning, one has to question Clausen's maturity and whether or not he is really ready for an NFL lifestyle? Clausen will be loaded with weapons if he stays. Even if Golden Tate departs for the NFL, he will still have outstanding targets in WR Michael Floyd and TE Kyle Rudolph - both sophomores. This is an opportunity for Clausen to prove his maturity under a new coach - something that would greatly improve his draft status in 2011.

Ryan Mallett - Go
Eligibility-wise, Ryan Mallett is just a Sophomore. If you remember, as a freshman in 2007 Mallet spelled an injured Chad Henne at Michigan and did a fair job. He was expected to become the starter in 2008, but the Wolverines brought in Rich Rodriguez. Thinking that Rodriguez's spread-offense was not something that would suit his skills, Mallett transferred to Arkansas. Looking back, this was probably a brilliant decision as Michigan hasn't done very well under Rodriguez. Mallett had to sit out the 2008 season (thus is still a sophomore) and has excelled in 2009. He is a big (6'7", 238), strong thrower and reminds me of Joe Flacco. As he has been out of High School for three years, he is eligible to declare for the draft. If he were to come out now, his stock would be very high. Another year going up against SEC defenses like Alabama and LSU might be a bit of a risk for Mallett if he decides to stick around. His entire receiving corps will be returning next season if he decides to stay, but we think Mallett could challenge Sam Bradford for the top QB pick if he leaves.

Jake Locker - Go
I'm not sold on Jake Locker's potential as a pro, but scouts see a lot of talent in the kid from Washington. He has good pocket presence and likes to tuck the ball and run. Though the Huskies pulled off an early upset of USC this year, Locker only got his team in the end zone one time that day, settling for 3 field goals. The 16-13 upset was as much attributable to a solid defense and Locker's ability to take care of the ball and not turn it over. As a program, Washington has not been very competitive in recent years and there's no reason to think that next year will show marked improvement in a strong Pac-10. If I were him, I'd bolt right now while my stock is high.

Case Keenum - Stay
Since the days of Andre Ware and David Klingler, Houston QB's have had the reputation of putting up impressive statistics, but then being NFL busts. The quintessential “system quarterbacks”. With the Eagles using a second round pick on Kevin Kolb and Kolb's subsequent solid performance backing up Donovan McNabb, perhaps this stereotype is about to change. Case Keenum is next in line for Houston and has perhaps the most interesting decision to make of this bunch. Since winning over the starting job in his freshman year, Keenum has posted staggering numbers. If he stays on next year and stays healthy, he is certain to break a number of career passing records like completions, passing yards and passing TDs.

Houston's non-conference games next season are against UCLA, Mississippi State, Texas Tech and Navy. While you can't say that a team like Houston won't have a hiccup (they lost to UTEP this year), you wouldn't consider this schedule to be very intimidating. Furthermore, all of Houston's offensive skill players are all returning. Houston could realistically make a run at an undefeated season.

With the big 3 QB's of the last 2 seasons gone (Bradford, McCoy, Tebow), surely Keenum's name would be atop the Heisman hopefuls. Even further, if Locker, Clausen and Mallett come out, Keenum's name rises amongst the list of 2011 prospects which means he might cash in as a 1st rounder, rather than be a 2010 mid-rounder where he'd most likely serve as a back-up somewhere and perhaps never get a chance to cash a big paycheck.

Let's recap - possible NCAA career records, possible undefeated season, possible Heisman, better draft stock in 2011, more money and a better chance at a starting NFL job. If I'm Case Keenum, I'm staying in Houston.

Jevan Snead - ???
The Rebels were flying high heading into the 2009 season and there was a buzz around Jevan Snead that brought with it high expectations. The Texas transfer has had an okay season, but hasn't necessarily established himself as an elite quarterback. With a completion percentage just over 50%, a QB rating of 127 (down from 145 in 2008) and 17 interceptions, Snead has played his way out of the top rounds of the draft. In fact, I would question whether or not he would be taken at all in 2010. However, should he decide to stick around he'll be doing so under similar circumstances as Ryan Mallet - having to go up against all those SEC defenses for another year. Unlike Mallett, however, Snead will not have his full arsenal of offensive weapons returning. Most notably, Dexter McCluster is a graduating senior and easily the most dynamic offensive weapon the Rebels have. This puts Snead in a bit of a bind - his stock might be lower than he would like right now, but there's no guarantee it will go any higher next year. He has a pretty tough decision ahead and I’m not sure which way he should go.

Of course, there are other factors besides draft status, potential earnings and an NFL future involved in these decisions. These quarterbacks are certainly hailed as heroes in their current situations at school. Giving up another year of that kind of treatment is difficult to do, especially considering the challenges they will face while moving on to the NFL. So I don’t see that you could ever blame a kid for taking the opportunity to stay in school. On the other hand, NFL dollars are there for the taking. For kids from low income families, it would be hard to pass that up even if staying in school might be a wise decision.

In the end, there are many factors involved in these decisions and sometimes football is only half the story. In the upcoming weeks and months, we’ll find out whether this group decides to head to the NFL or stay in school.