Did Peyton Manning Choke?

The Interception.  What the hell happened?  The fact that I don't have to say much more than that and you already know what I'm talking about means that it was probably something pretty important.

As the guy who labeled him The Greatest Statistical QB of All-Time in Non-Pressure Situations just a few months ago, you would expect me to jump on the "Peyton is a choker" bandwagon immediately.  But I resisted the tempation to go too far without delving into the situation a little deeper.  I get criticized for "hating" Manning, but I don't hate him.  I just think he is sometimes wildly overrated.  Let's face it, he was probably as worthy of the NFL MVP as Barack Obama was worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize.  But to just call him a choker without looking into it further seemed unfair.

Of course, that didn't stop other "analysts" from immediately throwing the horns on Peyton, going so far as to claim that he lost the game for the Colts.

Let's not get carried away here folks.  A game is 60 minutes, and there were plenty of other mistakes that were made.

Peyton Manning did not mishandle an onsides kick.  That was Hank Baskett.  Peyton Manning did not miss a 51-yard field goal.  That was Matt Stover. Peyton Manning did not drop a key 3rd down pass that hit him right in the hands and looked like it was going to turn into a huge play.  That was Pierre Garcon.  Peyton Manning did not drop a pass in the end zone that hit both of his hands that needed to be caught in the waning moments of a Super Bowl.  That was Reggie Wayne.  You could probably find numerous missed blocks, some poor coaching calls and a few penalties in there as well.  Peyton Manning wasn't the only one to screw up.

For Peyton to have "lost the game", you have to believe that the Colts would've scored on that drive, held the Saints and then scored again.  Overtime or not, that just takes way too much credit from a Saints team who earned every little bit of their Super Bowl Championship.  So the interception did NOT lose them the game.  It merely signified a likely ending point.

As for the play itself, I wanted to take an in-depth look and see just how bad this play really was.  Was this really Peyton Manning's fault?  Or was it a fluke of some sort?  Let's take a look.

THE PLAY

On 3rd and 5 with 3:24 remaining in the 4th quarter the Colts were down by 7.  The Colts had the ball on the Saints 31 yard line, on the left hash.  The Colts lined up with two receivers to the left - Austin Collie on the outside, off the line, and Reggie Wayne just inside the numbers, on the line.  On the right was Dallas Clark as a down tight end just outside the right hash and Pierre Garcon who was off the line and just outside the numbers.  Manning was in the shot-gun, to his right was Joseph Addai.

The Saints were in a nickel package and had 5 defensive backs in the game.  They came out with three down linemen and three linebackers, all within three yards of the ball.  Two of the linebackers were aggressively showing blitz and the other one was in a position where a blitz is certainly possible.  From his safety position, Roman Harper came up and aggressively showed blitz as well.

Manning puts Collie in motion behind Wayne and snaps the ball.

Here are the patterns:

Using the momentum gained from starting in motion, Collie runs a short drag across the middle.

Wayne appears to run a 5-yard in-cut at the sticks.

On the right side, Dallas Clark runs right down the right inside seam - a typical pattern for him.

Garcon releases to the inside and follows Clark for about 10 yards whereupon the ball is picked off and we never do quite get to see what Garcon's next cut would've been.  Clearly he is not running a streak - or else he would've been forced to use an outside release, or at least he would've pressed harder to the outside or lined up wider.  Most likely, he was getting ready to cut in at some point but the play never had time to develop enough for us to see it because...

On the snap of the ball, all three linemen brought pressure and all three linebackers blitzed.  The Colts actually did a very good job at picking it up.  But the blitz seemed to force Manning into making a quick decision when he probably had more time than he thought.

With 6 rushers, this left 5 defensive backs in coverage.  Each DB locked up on a receiver - Tracy Porter on Wayne, Jabari Greer on Garcon, Roman Harper backed off his blitz look and covered Clark and Michael Jenkins was on Collie.

Darren Sharper, the fifth DB, had lined up at safety depth, shaded way over to the Wayne/Collie side.  As the play unfolded, Sharper moves towards the center of the field.  At first I thought this meant the Saints were in a Cover-1 with Sharper deep and man-to-man underneath.  But on subsequent looks, Sharper wasn't taking a normal safety back-peddle and playing so that nobody could get behind him.  He was headed forward towards the line of scrimmage.  My feeling is that the coverage was pure man-to-man and Sharper's responsibility was to pick up Addai if he came out of the backfield - which was a long ways away, but I can't be 100% certain.

So 5 DB's were covering all 5 eligible receivers man-to-man.  That's a gutsy call - especially against Peyton Manning who is the media-anointed King of Reading and Reacting to Blitzes (he has a crown and everything).

Manning gets the snap and takes an additional 3-step drop.  After a cursory glance downfield, Manning turned directly towards old reliable - Reggie Wayne.  He didn't really step into the pass much and didn't seem to get very good velocity on the ball.  Porter had broken on the route very early and was well ahead of the throw to make the interception, his forward momentum leading him on a race to the end zone - a race he would win.

So... what happened?  How could this have happened to The Greatest Statistical QB of All-Time in Non-Pressure Situations?  Did the pressure get to Manning?  Did he... gulp... choke?

Maybe this was one of his "breather plays" and he didn't feel like he needed to focus very hard.

Let's take a look at what the key people were doing on this play and what they might have been thinking.  Mind you, this is all "best-guess".  I'm not going to sit here like Jaws and tell you exactly what was going through the player's mind.  I'll just give you what I thought.

TRACY PORTER

On the snap of the ball, Porter knows three things.  When Collie goes in motion, he passes him off to Jenkins inside - so he knows that he has Reggie Wayne in man-to-man coverage with no help whatsoever.  He also knows that there are 6 pass rushers going at Manning and that most likely the ball is going to come out quick.  Situationally, he knows that the Colts will be looking to get to the sticks to avoid a 4th down.

When Manning drops and reads blitz, he then looks directly toward Wayne.  Porter jumps the route.  This is quite a gamble.

Porter has no deep help at all.  If Wayne were to make any adjustment to either the outside or deep, this becomes a huge, possible game-tying play.

What made Porter confident enough to make this move?

I think three things. 

Of course one is the blitz.  He is expecting his guys to be on Manning quick.  If that happens, Wayne cannot make a double-move - he won't have time.  So he's banking on one move by Wayne, and when he sees Manning's eyes come that way, he decides to jump.

Secondly is the situation.  He knows Manning is looking for first down yardage - it's no coincidence Wayne began to make a move at the sticks.  Porter knows that's the spot he needs to be.

The third factor is film study and in-game study.  By now, Porter has probably watched Wayne run this route 50 times.  Maybe Wayne is looser out of his cut when he runs an out than an in.  Maybe he knows that when Collie goes in motion behind Wayne, the tendency is for Wayne to run this route.  Or maybe since Wayne ran this route earlier, Porter was expecting it or could sense similar action and wasn't going to let it happen again.

Obviously his gamble paid off.

PEYTON MANNING

Let's try to get in the head of Peyton Manning.

He gets to the line with the routes fresh in his mind, knowing that on 3rd and 5 he is going to want to at least get that 5 yards and a first down.  He should be fresh and ready to go - Anthony Hargrove was injured the play before and the offense had time to catch their breath.  He should not have been fatigued.

He scans the defense.  Nickel package, six potential rushers - maybe 7 because Harper is coming up aggressively too.  That's a lot of rushers.

He puts Collie in motion.  He sees that Porter hands Collie off to Jenkins.  By not running with the motion-man this suggests that the Saints may not be in man-to-man coverage.  If they’re in zone, then they need more people in coverage, which would lessen the chance of a blitz.  In a man-to-man situation, wouldn't the Saints want their best cover guy on Wayne?  Yet Michael Jenkins nonchalantly hands him off to Tracy Porter.

Naturally, because Peyton watches more film than any other NFL player, he knows this could be a decoy, right?

The ball is snapped.  Chaos.

All the linebackers are coming.  At this point, Peyton has a lot of things running through his mind... the first one being, "Oh Sh*t!".

But he has choices. 

Collie is running a shallow dig across the middle - a very good route against man coverage if the linebackers vacate like they did.  Jenkins has decent coverage on the route, but there's a little cushion and it appears Collie is still open enough.  Peyton's accuracy when throwing this route is usually second-to-none in the league.

With Sharper lined up deep to Manning's left and Harper vacating his safety alignment to show blitz, perhaps Manning should've made the pre-determination to look to the right towards Clark and Garcon.  If Harper blitzes, nobody is in position to cover Dallas Clark.  I mean nobody at all!  So why is the first look NOT to Clark?  Harper is a little slow to get back in coverage on Clark's route and Clark seems to be pretty open deep.

Now to be fair, there are some legitimate reasons as to why Peyton might have decided not to go this way.  He could've read heavy blitz, known the routes on the right were longer-developing routes and decided that he was throwing left no matter what.  He could've seen Sharper make a move towards the middle and maybe he thought Sharper had deep middle coverage, which could've taken away Clark.  Maybe he just thought that he was going to his best receiver at the sticks for an important first down and just trusted it would be open - especially if he noticed Porter didn't have deep help.

But let’s check out Wayne’s route.  Wayne seemed a little slow out of his break.  At first I thought that maybe he was curling up instead of cutting in and maybe either Manning or Wayne had the route wrong altogether.  But after watching it a few times, I think the in-route was pre-determined by the play.  It looks to me like Wayne saw Porter attacking the route and just knew he wasn't going to be able beat him to that spot. 

For a moment, he's in limbo.  He turns, but it doesn't look like he's really expecting Manning to throw that pass - Porter is just all over the route.

Sometimes when you have a QB/WR combination that has been working together for a while, instincts take over and adjustments get made on-the-fly.  Had Manning pumped or simply held the ball longer, Wayne adjusts that route, is wide open for a big play and we're none the wiser - just another great play by Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne.

But Manning rushes his throw.  He looks Wayne's way and he unleashes the ball towards his favorite target, or at least where he thinks his favorite target is going to be.  Somehow he doesn’t see that Porter is in better position to make the catch than Wayne.  I would bet that as his arm was just about to release the ball, the following conversation took place:

Peyton's head: OH NO!  DON'T THROW IT!

Peyton's arm: BUT YOU ALREADY TOLD ME TO THROW IT!

Peyton's head: I CHANGED MY MIND!!!
Peyton's arm: IT'S TOO LATE!!!  I THREW IT!!!

He hit Porter right in the numbers. 

THE BIG QUESTION 

So the question is, did Peyton Manning choke?

Unfortunately, the answer to that is yes - he most certainly did.

First off, he rushed himself.  The protection actually picked up the blitz fairly well and Peyton didn't need to rush his throw as much as he did.  Any added brief moment he gave himself before releasing that pass would've probably told him that this throw wasn't a good idea.  Porter was right there!

Peyton didn't set his feet properly and sorta drifted to his left.  There didn't seem to be much confidence on the pass and there definitely wasn't much added velocity.  To his credit, Phil Simms mentioned this on the broadcast - that in order to buy time, both quarterbacks seemed to throw the ball with backwards momentum at times.  I was thinking that maybe this was something I was going to have to coach my kids to do, but then the interception happened and I decided that was a bad idea

Peyton made a poor choice in receivers.  Wayne's route is probably intended to be open against more of a zone coverage then man-to-man.  Against a zone, Collie clears the nearside linebacker and the flat defender stays on Wayne's outside and BAM - wide open.  Unfortunately, the Saints were playing man-to-man.  Maybe Manning read zone after seeing Porter pass the motioning Collie off to Jenkins.  But then again, doesn't this guy watch film?

Any of the other receivers would've been a better choice.

Look, I hate when analysts say, "Oh... he missed a wide open guy."  Sometimes the progression just doesn't lead you to the wide open guy.  But Peyton could've probably hit Collie on the dig.  He probably could've hit Clark deep on the seam, which was screaming to be thrown.  And if given an additional moment, he probably could've hit Garcon on the deep-in.

Two other receivers who were wide open were Jim Caldwell and Manning's back pocket.  Peyton still could've thrown the ball away or taken a sack and faced a 4th down, which wouldn't have necessarily been the worst thing - especially given the alternative.

The action in the NFL is fast and ferocious.  I watched this play dozens of times to produce this analysis.  How can it be fair to expect a guy to know it all in the blink of an eye when it took me multiple rewinded replays?  (I mean, besides the $15 million dollars he makes in a year.) 

In the end, I think that even if Wayne makes a pristine cut out of his break, this ball is getting picked off.  It hit Porter right in the gut!  Peyton was either wildly inaccurate, mentally flustered, or devoid of his normally reliable analytical pattern.  I think it it was a combination of the three, and I think that the pressure of the situation had everything to do with it.

With the Super Bowl on the line and all the pressure of the world on him, Manning faltered.  The great Manning proved why I have dubbed him The Greatest Statistical QB of All-Time in Non-Pressure Situations.  Did he lose the game?  No, I won't go that far.  There is plenty of blame to go around.  But I hope someone in that locker room knows the Heimlich maneuver... because when they needed him most, Peyton did what we've seen him do way too many times before.

He choked.