In their most recent mocks, both pay-per-read ESPN Insider NFL Draft experts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay downgraded Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen. I am starting to think they really do read The QB Club.
Kiper especially seems to have been caught with his hand in the cookie jar. When Clausen elected to come out, he immediately shot right to the top of Kiper's Big Board as the #4 player overall and the top QB. I doubt Kiper even bothered to check with his NFL sources - you know, the ones that I don't have.
McShay initially held back and in his initial mock placed Clausen at the end of the first round - at #23 to the Seahawks.
But oh how things are changing.
Kiper's latest Big Board dropped Clausen to the #6 overall spot as Sam Bradford leapfrogged him to become the top QB. Kiper seems to use Bradford's unknown shoulder situation as some sort of smokescreen which allows him to move Bradford around without actually admitting that he was initially overly-smitten by Clausen. In his first mock draft, Kiper has Clausen as the second QB going in the #8 spot to the Buffalo Bills.
Say what?
I'm going to tell you why this makes no sense at all.
Usually quarterbacks get elevated above and beyond their sheer player rank. They don't move down. If a QB is the 6th ranked player overall in the draft, he will typically get elevated to a top 3 pick, not fall! Recent cases in point - Eli Manning and Alex Smith were not initially the highest ranked players in their respective draft classes, yet by the time the draft came along they were consensus #1 overall picks.
You might argue that the teams ahead of the #8 pick don't have a need at QB in which case Clausen would be a less attractive pick. But St Louis, Washington (Kiper has Bradford going to the 'Skins), Seattle, and Cleveland all pick ahead of the Bills and all have a potential QB need.
You know who else picks ahead of the Bills? Kansas City. You know who their offensive coordinator is? That's right - Clausen's former coach Charlie Weis. So what does it say for a top-rated QB to get passed up by his own former coach! Matt Cassell or not, if Weis thought Clausen was a top-notch QB, he'd be taking him.
What does this all mean?
Well, to me it means that Kiper is posturing. He realized that he's made a mistake, but he's not willing to come out and just admit it. Instead, he's going to leak Clausen down his Big Board and Mock Drafts over the coming weeks, probably telling us how Clausen's stock is dropping even though it was never what he claimed it to be in the first place.
As for McShay, in his most recent mock draft, he took Clausen out of the first round altogether without as much of a mention as to why, though in the past he has cited Clausen's "leadership issues".
While Kiper and McShay were busy downgrading Clausen, another pay-per-read ESPN Insider had KC Joyner wrote a whole piece about Clausen where he seemed to compare Clausen's potential to that of Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Joyner states, "It is pretty much a given that Clausen will be a first-round draft pick." The term "a given" is pretty strong. I don't think it's a given. Apparently ESPN's Expert Todd McShay doesn't think so either. Maybe Joyner didn't get the memo.
Meanwhile, you have draft bloggers here, here, here and all over the internet over-rating Clausen. Some of those were probably relying on Kiper's information and their own fond memories of Notre Dame QB's like Joe Montana, Joe Theissman, Rick Mirer, and Ron Powlus. (Yes, those last two were for effect.)
Draft day always brings surprises. Remember Brady Quinn all dressed up with his girlfriend waiting for his name to be called? Quinn was from Notre Dame too. Quinn has had some ups and downs - well, mostly downs - in his young NFL career this far. For those of us that can remember back that far, Notre Dame actually had success under Brady Quinn - way more than the disappointing years with Clausen at the helm. Quinn has more arm strength, a seemingly better work ethic, never got punched out in a bar, and seems way more intelligent than the kid that got left-back in 6th grade.
How long do you think Jimmy will be sitting in that room this year? Maybe he can borrow Brady's ex-girlfriend? I hope he brings a book to read... here's a suggestion.
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